Everything was looking up for AltaVista (dossier)
in the months before its IPO. Growth in its online traffic to 13.5
million visitors in January had lifted the portal into a choice spot
as the ninth-largest Web property according to Media Metrix
(JMXI),
a traffic measurement company. And February was expected to be even
better: AltaVista's acquisition of Raging Bull (dossier)
would be complete and traffic from the popular personal-finance site
would give AltaVista a further boost. Having filed for a $281
million initial public offering in December, the spirits at
AltaVista were especially high.
But jaws dropped when February figures were reported March 19.
AltaVista's expected increase in traffic failed to materialize;
Media Metrix recorded a drop in visitors to the site - despite the
inclusion of Raging Bull's 593,000 visitors. The decline to 12.3
million visitors pushed AltaVista down the rankings to No. 13.
The timing couldn't have been worse. The next monthly traffic
report would not be available before AltaVista's IPO, which was
slated to price April 17. AltaVista's bankers postponed the offering
following the Nasdaq's dive over the week of April 10. Though the
stock-market drop was the big factor in AltaVista's pulled IPO,
journalists also pinned blame on the dramatic drop in February's
traffic.
What was particularly galling to AltaVista executives was that
they had reason to question Media Metrix's numbers. The portal's
internal records showed that visitor totals climbed 7 percent from
January to February. "The inaccuracy, from our perspective, was
devastating, and we're still trying to recover from it," says Ralph
DiMuccio, former research manager and now manager of industry
relations at AltaVista.
Just as a Nielsen rating can make or break a television program,
Media Metrix ratings and those of its competitors - Nielsen
NetRatings, PC Data and recent entrant Net Value - have become
gospel in the Internet Economy. Web businesses live and die by their
traffic figures. It wasn't designed to be that way, however. The
ratings were originally intended to provide online advertisers with
an independent, third-party opinion on site audience size and
quality. However, the use of these numbers has expanded far beyond
the walls of ad agencies to the trading floors of Wall Street.
"These ratings [are] the coin of the realm by which business
development, advertising, sponsorship deals and, ultimately, these
companies themselves are valued upon," says Rich
LeFurgy, president of the Internet Advertising Bureau in New
York and general partner at Walden VC. Five independent university
studies showing that ratings data move Net stocks or influence
company valuations back up LeFurgy's point.
Numbers that carry such weight should be reliable, and ratings
firms stand by their accuracy. "The importance and accuracy of our
numbers is the most important thing we do here," says Tim Meadows,
executive VP of products and services for NetRatings. "Whether it is
a billion-dollar stock trade or a million-dollar ad buy, we feel it
is our responsibility to provide the highest quality data."
But many industry insiders and outside experts say ratings
figures are often flawed and wildly inconsistent. One study showed
that ratings firms sometimes overestimate traffic by 300 percent in
comparison to the number of visitors recorded on a site's own
internal servers. Smaller sites, and those that get much of their
traffic from workplace surfers, are especially vulnerable to
miscounts.
Although sites have long worked with ratings companies to try to
improve the data, little progress has been made. Meanwhile, the
financial community continues to rely on the data, causing concern
with experts like Kirthi Kalyanam, associate professor at Santa
Clara University California and co-author of a landmark study on
traffic ratings. "I think that [ratings] may be, unfortunately,
highly misleading," he says.
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